EUR/USD Outlook: Bears Regain Ground Amid Consolidation
This week’s technical snapshot shows EUR/USD hovering near the key 1.0660 support level, which aligns closely with its 30-day simple moving average (SMA). After rallying earlier in the month, the pair struggled to break through the 1.0950 resistance, signaling a possible shift in momentum. A bearish RSI divergence emerged alongside a drop below 1.0830, strengthening the downside outlook.
The appearance of a double top pattern near 1.0950 confirmed resistance, and sellers gained traction as buyers failed to set a new higher high. However, a clean break below 1.0660 is needed to confirm a more persistent bearish trend. If that level fails, the pair could slide further toward 1.0400. Until then, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues, making this a critical zone to watch.
Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish Momentum Holds Above $3,000
Gold remains firmly in bullish territory as buyers returned near the $3,000 psychological support level. The recent pullback appears to be a round of profit-taking rather than a reversal, with price action hugging the short-term ascending trendline that started mid-March.
A sustained break above the $3,057 all-time high would signal renewed bullish momentum and open the door for targets above $3,100. If buyers maintain control and RSI levels stay neutral, any short-term dips could be seen as fresh buying opportunities. The $2,980–$3,000 demand zone continues to act as a critical support range for maintaining upward momentum.
Nasdaq Index: Warning Signs Emerge After Channel Breakdown
On the daily chart, the Nasdaq has dipped below the lower boundary of its rising trend channel that began in January 2023. After topping out near 22,200, the index corrected sharply to around 19,190, a level last seen in September.
While a minor rebound followed, the broader formation suggests further weakness could be on the horizon. The 21,200 resistance now acts as a key level—failure to breach it could invite another wave of selling. A clear break above it, however, would restore some bullish confidence. For now, sentiment remains slightly bearish until stronger confirmation of a trend reversal appears.
USD/JPY: Bullish Breakout or Bear Trap?
The USD/JPY pair has broken above a descending trendline stretching back to mid-January, bouncing off support near 146.60. Recent positive U.S. economic news helped shift sentiment, and a bullish moving average crossover, along with higher lows, suggests the downtrend is weakening.
Still, the 150.00 level remains a significant pivot point after a bearish engulfing candle formed there. If buyers can push through the next resistance zone at 152.80, the path could be clear for a move toward 155.60. On the downside, key support lies at the 30-SMA and 148.20. A breakdown could reignite bearish pressure and test the prior low at 146.60.
AUD/USD: Consolidation or New Uptrend?
AUD/USD has reclaimed ground above the 30-day SMA after rebounding from strong support at 0.6260, hinting at a short-term bullish tilt. The pair now eyes 0.6390, a level tested multiple times over recent weeks.
However, broader price action still reflects a range-bound structure between 0.6200 support and 0.6410 resistance, suggesting limited directional conviction. If bulls manage to break above 0.6410, momentum could extend toward 0.6500. Otherwise, the sideways pattern may persist, especially if sellers re-enter near resistance.
Final Takeaway: Markets at a Crossroads
This week’s forex landscape is shaped by mixed signals — from gold’s steady climb and EUR/USD’s pivotal test at support, to potential trend changes in USD/JPY and Nasdaq’s warning signs. Price action across key pairs shows a market still reacting to macro uncertainty, rate cut speculation, and geopolitical shifts. Traders should stay alert for breakouts and false moves, especially as major support and resistance levels come under pressure.